New Delhi [India], December 24 : India's solar module manufacturing industry is poised for a significant transformation over the next five years, with the export-import balance expected to improve substantially, according to a report by CRISIL.
The report highlighted that robust domestic demand for solar modules, estimated at an average of 50-55 gigawatts (GW) annually between Fiscal 2024 and 2030, will be a key driver for the sector.
However, increasing domestic production is anticipated to result in an oversupply from Fiscal 2025 onwards, creating opportunities for exports.
The report said "the growth in production of modules is expected to result in oversupply from Fiscal 2025 onwards leaving room for exports".
India exported approximately 7 GW of solar modules in Fiscal 2024, accounting for around 50 per cent of the country's production.
With domestic production surpassing local demand, the report anticipates that overcapacity in module manufacturing will enable significant export opportunities in the years ahead.
Despite this positive outlook, the share of exports in total production is expected to moderate to 25-32 per cent by Fiscal 2030, driven by rising domestic consumption needs. Absolute exports, however, are projected to grow steadily during the period.
It said "the share of exports in production is expected to moderate between 25 per cent and 32 per cent over the years owing to rising domestic consumption needs".
On the import front, the reimposition of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) from Fiscal 2025 and increasing nameplate capacity are expected to significantly reduce import dependency. Import reliance for solar modules, which stood at 59 per cent in Fiscal 2024, is likely to fall to 5-10 per cent by Fiscal 2030.
Nevertheless, the domestic solar industry will continue to depend heavily on imports for upstream components like polysilicon, wafers, and cells due to limited integrated manufacturing capacity in the country.
Even with significant additions to domestic cell manufacturing capacity, Indian module manufacturers will remain reliant on imported cells, albeit at a reduced level.
The report also noted that falling prices of solar components over the last three years have supported imports. While this trend is expected to change with the growth of domestic manufacturing, the dependence on imports for certain critical components is unlikely to be eliminated entirely.
With growing production capacity and supportive policy measures, India's solar module manufacturing sector is set to play a larger role in global markets, contributing to the country's clean energy transition while reducing its reliance on imports.
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