Afghanistan’s win over Australia in the T20 World Cup 2024 Group 1 Spear 8 fixture at the Arnos Vale Ground, Aros Vale, St Vincent has jeopardized the 2021 Champions’ chances of qualification for the semi-finals.With one more game to go Australia found themselves second on the points table and their final Super 8 league game is against the unbeaten India at the Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet, St Lucia. Afghanistan will be playing Bangladesh in their final Super 8 league game at the same venue as today’s game.
India
India are unbeaten in this tournament and the commanding win over Bangladesh has left them well placed in the group with a healthy NRR of 2.425. Even a defeat to Australia in the final game can see them go through as group winners. The Australia defeat means, India are more or less through to the semi-finals. In a three-way tie between India, Australia and Afghanistan: for India to be eliminated, Australia have to beat India by 41 or more runs to surpass their NRR while Afghanistan will need to beat to Bangladesh by 83 runs to surpass India's NRR.
Australia
Australia are better placed currently in terms of NRR, despite a significant dent to that metric against Afghanistan. For Australia to qualify they have to beat India and hope Afghanistan lose to Bangladesh or not win by a margin big enough to overhaul Australia's NRR. A loss against India will eliminate them if Afghanistan beat Bangladesh in the last group match.
Afghanistan
A win over Australia has put Afghanistan back on track for the semifinal race. For Afghanistan to qualify, they have to beat Bangladesh in the last match and hope India beat Australia. In an other scenario, if Australia beat India by 1 run, then Afghanistan will have to beat Bangladesh by 36 or more runs to overtake Australia's NRR (assuming the team batting first scores 160 runs). Afghanistan have the advantage of playing last and knowing the exact scenarios needed for qualification.
Bangladesh
Afghanistan's win keeps Bangladesh in the tournament for another day. They will need a miracle to qualify with their -2.489 NRR, but mathematically, they're still in the hunt. Bangladesh can qualify for the semis if they beat Afghanistan by a huge margin and hope India also beat Australia by a good margin. In that scenario, NRR will come into the picture in a three-way tie between Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. If Australia lose to India by 55 runs then Bangladesh need to win by 31 or more runs to qualify for the semis along with India (assuming the team batting first scores 160 runs).
