India’s aspirations for the World Test Championship (WTC) 2023/25 final took a severe hit after a 184-run defeat to Australia in the fourth Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test at Melbourne on Monday. Despite the setback, both teams remain in contention, with Australia holding second place and India third in the WTC standings. India now faces a do-or-die situation in the upcoming Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG). Even a win there may not be enough to secure its spot in the WTC final, as qualification now hinges on results from other matches.
For India to keep its chances alive, it must win the SCG Test and level the series at 2-2. Additionally, it needs Sri Lanka to sweep Australia 2-0 in their upcoming series. Under this scenario, India’s win percentage would climb to 55.26, narrowly edging out Australia’s 54.26.However, if Australia manages to draw even a single game against Sri Lanka, its win percentage would rise to 56.48, effectively eliminating India. A series loss for India in Sydney would definitively end its WTC final hopes.
The situation becomes even more unpredictable with potential penalties for slow over-rates, which could alter the qualification equations for both teams. Currently, only eight points—equivalent to two draws—separate Australia and India in the WTC standings. With India left to play just one more match and Australia three (two against Sri Lanka), every remaining contest is critical, particularly the upcoming showdown at Sydney.
