Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: BJP's Internal Survey Predicts Decline in Vidarbha, Mahayuti Likely to Secure Only 25 Seats

As the Maharashtra Assembly elections approach, political parties are gearing up intensively, each striving to select the right candidates to secure victory. Internal surveys are being conducted ahead of the elections to gauge public sentiment.

Recent reports suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has conducted a survey in Vidarbha, a region that has traditionally been a BJP stronghold, and the findings indicate alarming statistics for the Grand Alliance. The survey suggests that the Vidarbha Mahayuti may secure only 25 seats.

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Vidarbha played a crucial role in the BJP's ascent to power in the state in 2014. However, recent trends indicate a decline in the party’s fortunes in the region, highlighted by significant losses in the most recent Lok Sabha elections. As a result, it appears that the Grand Alliance may not find a favorable environment in Vidarbha for the upcoming assembly elections, as revealed by the BJP's internal survey, which was reported by 'ABP Majha'.

According to this report, the BJP may win 18 seats in Vidarbha, while Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena is projected to secure 5 seats, and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar's NCP could manage just 2. This situation raises concerns for the Mahayuti.

An effort is underway to address potential seat discrepancies. The MLAs from Ajit Pawar's faction within the Grand Alliance have been re-nominated according to a 'sitting-getting' formula. Meanwhile, the BJP, which has long contested against the NCP, faces challenges in at least 20 constituencies. The party needs to navigate its alliance with Ajit Pawar’s group while retaining the support of its traditional voter base.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance faced off against the Congress-Nationalist Alliance, resulting in contentious battles in many constituencies, particularly between the BJP and NCP. After the split within the NCP in 2023, Ajit Pawar’s faction allied with the BJP. However, BJP faces a considerable challenge in winning over its candidates, dedicated leaders, and activists to accept this new partnership.

BJP state spokesperson Ganesh Hake has expressed concerns that the association with Ajit Pawar could lead to significant setbacks in the assembly elections. There are ongoing discussions about the dissatisfaction among traditional BJP voters regarding Ajit Pawar. If existing MLAs from Ajit Pawar's faction are granted another opportunity to contest, it could potentially lead to dissent or grievances within the BJP across nearly 20 constituencies.