Assembly Election Result 2023: BJP tightens grip on NDA, Congress faces dilemma in 'India' alliance

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured landslide victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, reshaping the political dynamics and influencing the party's aspirations for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The triumph not only consolidates the BJP's grip on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but also poses challenges for its allies while significantly impacting the Congress's negotiating power within the 'India' alliance.

The decisive wins in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh have set the stage for the BJP to eye a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party's dominance has further solidified the position of key leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and national president Jagat Prakash Nadda, making them formidable forces within the BJP without any internal challenges.

As the BJP tightens its hold on the 34-member NDA, allies such as the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra face the inevitable acceptance of the BJP's seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The political landscape in southern India has also shifted, with Karnataka and Telangana delivering results that indicate the BJP's challenge in establishing a foothold in these states.

In southern states, the BJP, which won 26 seats in Karnataka and four in Telangana in the last Lok Sabha elections, now faces the task of re-establishing its presence. The victory in the Hindi heartland strengthens the BJP's hand in determining seat allocations for allies in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, and Assam.

The triumph in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan presents a unique opportunity for the BJP's high command to consider new leadership faces for the chief ministerial roles, potentially sidelining stalwarts like Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje Shinde. Speculations about leadership changes in other states have been circulating, hinting at a broader shift in the party's strategy.

For the Congress, the defeats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where victories were anticipated, disrupt the party's plans and raise concerns about its negotiating strength within the 'India' alliance. The Congress wave in Telangana had initially fueled concerns among alliance leaders about the potential increase in the Congress's dominance in seat-sharing negotiations for the Lok Sabha elections.

In the direct fight against the BJP, the Congress's failure to secure victories in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, despite coming to power in these states in the 2018 assembly elections, poses a challenge for the party. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 62 out of the 65 seats in these states, signalling a significant setback for the Congress.

The upcoming Lok Sabha elections will see the Congress-BJP direct contest in 152 constituencies spread across several states. Leaders of the 'India' alliance are now urging the Congress to focus on winning seats where it directly contests against the BJP, avoiding unnecessary complications in the seat-sharing arrangement within the alliance.

The removal of prominent Congress leaders like Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh, and Ashok Gehlot from the political landscape in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan opens the door for Rahul Gandhi to potentially reshape the party. However, there are speculations that the political careers of these leaders within the Congress may come to an end.