COVID-19 to end in mid-September in India, reveals Health Ministry

Amidst the rising number of coronavirus cases in the country, the one answer everyone is searching for  is when will the pandemic end in India. With India climbing to the fifth spot there is no definite answer as to when will the spread of the virus end in India. However, According to Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September. 

In his article published in Epidemiology International Journal, Kumar, along with co-author and Deputy Assistant Director General (Leprosy) of Directorate General of Health Services, Health Ministry, Rupali Roy, have predicted that the pandemic would leave India in mid-September. Their prediction is based on Bailey’s model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is considered for reaching a conclusion. It is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out of the pool. When the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100% threshold. Then this pandemic will be over, the researches predicted.

In this, the removal rate is worked out after calculating the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, regression analysis has been done, to get the results regarding the relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate. According to the document, the actual epidemic in India started on March 2 and since then the number of confirmed cases have been rising. For conducting the analysis experts used the secondary data for COVID -19 in India from Worldometers.info on the number of cases reported in the country since March 1 to May 19 along with a total of cumulative recovered cases and cumulative deaths. Regression Analysis (Linear) of Bailey's Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR), COVID 19, in India shows that the linear line is reaching 100 in the mid of September, the research paper said.