New Delhi, Dec 4 Results of the state Assembly polls prove the BJP’s election machinery is powerful and can fight anti-incumbency effectively, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal is still strong given the party fought these elections without a Chief Ministerial face, according to a report by Elara Securities
The results give a leg-up to BJP’s prospects in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, revival in Hindi heartland States to bolster next year's tally (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have 65 seats in Lok Sabha).
This also weakens the Congress position in the INDIA opposition bloc and raises questions about an anti-BJP alliance.
The opposition still may have not found its political antidote for BJP’s development and Hindutva agenda. The caste census issue failed to dent BJP’s prospects, the report said.
Expectations of policy stability and coordinated development policy in key large states with the Centre is set to keep India attractive among emerging market (EM) peers, it added.
State finances are set to come under stress amid populist schemes announced by the BJP as well as the Congress
The BJP’s win will see a readoption of the New Pension Scheme in states, such as Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where the Congress had shifted to Old Pension Scheme, but would see adoption of the Old scheme in Telangana, where Congress has won, the report said.
Sector-wise, we see rural- and healthcare-focused stocks coming back into focus with the BJP’s execution of schemes being more clinical and targeted. The victory should further diminish expectations of a fuel price cut at the retail level and hence should provide a leg-up to performance of oil marketing companies (OMC) stocks.
With focus shifting to election preparedness and related spending, impetus to new ordering activity is moderating even as the private sector adopts a wait-and-watch approach. We see order inflow momentum weakening for capital goods and infrastructure companies at least until Q2FY25, the report said.
BJP’s resurgence ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections bodes well for the economy and markets, it said.
The election results should offer comfort to investors regarding the BJP’s vote garnering ability and Prime Minister Modi’s appeal with the public.
"We note the BJP fought all state elections with no pre-declared Chief Ministerial candidate; hence, it was Prime Minister Modi’s appeal that was under test," the report said.
The results should offer succor to the markets that have been worried about policy instability and shake-up in policy priorities of the BJP at the Centre --namely, Atmanirbhar Bharat, accelerated infra spending, defence indigenisation, energy transition and continued focus on sound macro-fundamental policies.
Apart from this, softer aspects, such as assertive diplomacy, may continue to see India gain in an uncertain global geopolitical world, it added.
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