Mumbai, Jan 2 Indian equity indices are poised to advance in the beginning of 2025 on the back of recovery expected in earnings, supported by boost in rural spending and pick up in government spending, according to a Bank of Baroda (BoB) report released on Thursday.
Both Sensex and Nifty 50 surged by 8.7 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, in CY 2024. Sensex touched an all-time high this year as it breached the mark of 85,500. Sectors including real estate, consumer durables and IT were amongst the best-performing stocks in CY24, the report said.
The government continue to follow its fiscal prudence path, as it plans to lower its fiscal deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP with the gross borrowing target of Rs 14 lakh crore.
Expectation of rate cut by RBI are back on the table beginning with possibly February 2025 after keeping rates on hold at 6.5 per cent since Feb 2023, the report mentioned.
As per the report, rupees depreciated by 2.8 per cent in CY24, but remained one of the better-performing currencies amongst other its peers.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continued with the forex intervention in order to address the weakness in the currency. Stable CAD (current account deficit) and lower oil prices also supported the rupee,” said Jahnavi Prabhakar, economist, Bank of Baroda.
"In CY25, the rupee is expected to depreciate marginally as volatility in FPI flow might continue given the likelihood of a stronger dollar," she added.
Meanwhile, on the Bond front, the report said that US Fed began with the monetary easing cycle this year in September 2024, as it lowered rates for the first time in three years.
While there was initial expectation of more rate cuts, the Fed dialled back any such reduction in CY25 to only 2, bringing down the federal funds rate to 3.75-4 per cent mark.
Despite the cuts, the yields continue to remain elevated yields, this also signal that the inflation risk continue to persist, the report said.
"In CY25, there is some uncertainty at play owing to the impact of the upcoming policies that will be laid down by the Donald Trump administration and these could be inflationary, said the report.
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